SALEM JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH AFRICA, ALGERIA, NIGERIA AND EGYPT

Victoria O. Ogundairo, Olorunfemi Y. Alimi
January 18, 2026

Abstract

Persistent growth performance disparities among African economies despite increased trade openness put into question the effectiveness of trade openness in driving sustainable development. This study explores the influence of trade openness on economic growth in South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria, and Egypt (SANE) using data from annual data spanning 1986-2023 obtained from World Development Indicators. The study is based on the endogenous growth theory with trade openness, inflation, foreign direct investment (FDI), and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as explanatory variables. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing method, long-run as well as short-run dynamics are estimated. The results indicate that trade openness is a strong supporter of long-run economic growth in South Africa and Algeria, whereas FDI and GFCF are the main drivers in Egypt. By contrast, none of the macroeconomic determinants have a persistent influence on growth in Nigeria with far-reaching implications for structural and institutional issues. Inflation always represents a negative contribution to growth in the majority of countries, which underscores the importance of macroeconomic stability. The study highlights the country-specificity of the macroeconomic variables' influence on growth. Based on this result, the paper recommends that certain policies encouraging greater trade integration, investment efficiency, and inflation control are required to guarantee long-term growth in the SANE region.

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SALEM JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

Published in SALEM JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

ISSN: 627-44669

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